``There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.''
Kenneth Olsen,
President and founder of Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.
``No possible combination of known substances, known forms of machinery, and known forms of force, can be united in a practical machine by which man shall fly long distances through the air.''
Simon Newcomb (1835-1909), astronomer,
head of the U.S. Naval Observatory.
As can be seen from these quotes, it is by no means easy to predict whether a certain technology will succeed or fail. However, this report will attempt to investigate the general causes of technological failure and to try and draw conclusions of common reasons why technologies do not succeed. But before we start looking into specific technologies, we must ask certain questions: what exactly is a ``technology'', and under what circumstances can it be defined as ``failed''? The word ``technology'' is mainly used these days in the context of scientific advances, such as improved computer processor speeds, and improved data storage such as DVDs. This was not always the case of course, and as we will see, everyday items such as sewing machines were considered to be technological advances in their time. So firstly, an important distinction needs to be made between an invention and a technology. There are several dictionary definitions of an invention, such as an item ``the contrivance or construction of that which has not before existed.''1.1This does not necessarily fit our purpose, as there are several products or services available that are simply improvements on a previous product or service, and so might not be considered as new. An example of this is the dot-com revolution, which was not a new service, but a new application of the existing service of The Internet to the market of buying online. A more appropriate definition comes from a technology as a ``practical application of science to commerce or industry.''1.1This encompasses a wider range of products or services from which to gain information. The next definition we must tackle is what exactly a failure is? A common definition would be a technology that is not commercially successful, but this does not show the whole picture by any means. If you ask the average consumer on the street which is a more successful computer operating system, Windows or Linux, almost all would say Windows, as most would likely not even have heard of Linux. However, this does not account for the purpose of the respective systems: Windows is designed to be a consumer product for home use, and therefore to have public awareness of its existence is important for its success. On the other hand, Linux is designed for the specialist computer user, one that has different requirements from the home user, and knows enough to differentiate between operating systems. It is also available for free in many versions, so its commercial success or popularity is not a good indication of its overall success. The definition we will use for identification of failed technologies is ``an event that does not accomplish its intended purpose.''1.1This seems to most accurately describe the technologies that we have investigated. However, it still does not account for all cases. In the 19th century, an idea was put forward to print rubber newspapers in order for people to read them in the bath. Unsurprisingly this ``technology'' did not have much of a market, but there is one rubber printing house still operational in the world. This printing house now produces rubber newspaper almost entirely for use as dogs' toys. According to our definition the rubber newspaper is a failure, but has obviously found other commercial uses! Using these definitions, we will firstly examine three major case studies that have many important factors involved in their failure, and discuss how these factors influenced the technology's downfall. Then these factors will be formed into more general themes, and discuss how these themes relate to other examples of failed technologies. Conclusions will be drawn from these themes as to common reasons why technologies do not succeed, and finally, we will attempt to make predictions on the success or failure of technologies currently in the development stages.
Lead into the first case study