8 Prediction

``No possible combination of known substances, known forms of machinery, and known forms of force, can be united in a practical machine by which man shall flay long distances through the air.''

Simon Newcomb (1835-1909), astronomer,
head of the U.S. Naval Observatory.

Why bother studying the history of technology failures? Well the answer is extremely simple. We study the past, so we can understand the present, and also to predict the future. The key to the answer being that, by examining the reasons for previously failed technologies, we may have more chance of predicting whether something will be successful. These predictions have the potential to save the huge resources that are ploughed into new technology, and the ultimate embarrassment of failure. Communications technology over the last decade has been a substantial growth industry across the world. There have been catastrophic failures such as the dot-coms, satellite phones and CT2 phones, but there have also been huge successes such as the GSM network and ADSL Internet technology. With the high stakes involved in these potentially risky technology areas, it would be extremely useful to be able to predict whether a new technology would be a success. After examining a number of case studies, the group was able to draw a number of reasons for these failures, and by examining these common reasons it was possible to see a pattern for failing technologies. These patterns helped to produce a model showing which reasons were found to have more of an effect on the failure of technologies, and also gave the possibility of using this information to predict the failure of future technologies. Although the IEEE 802.11^8.1 wireless networking standard has been around since the 1980s it is only recently that wireless local area networks (WLAN) using spread spectrum technology have started to take off. With the success of basic WLAN in the office and for the home user, telecommunications companies have been looking for a way to harness this technology and use it to increase their revenues. Their solution has been to come up with an idea of access points in busy areas such as airports, railways stations and shopping centres in a similar system to the failed CT2 cordless phones of the 1980s. So will public WLAN technology be a success, or will they meet the same fate as the CT2 cordless phone networks such as rabbit and mercury callpoint nearly two decades ago? The group’s analysis of failed technologies showed that there are 2 major factors that feature in most failed technologies, so considering the design and marketing of the technology should help to give an insight into the success of public WLAN services. WLAN is already an established working system that has been catching on with home and business users because of the recent price reduction and ease of setup^8.2. There are also a wide range of different network adapter cards on offer for devices that people use on the move such as PDA’s and laptops, which do not have the problems of being big and bulky like satellite phones did. Essentially the new technology is building on an earlier, successfully designed technology, so it should not fail for design reasons. The second major factor connected to failure is marketing. This has become particularly important this century since to make money and be successful people need to buy the technology. BT and a number of other suppliers have already launched their WLAN services, but there has been very little advertising or marketing for the services. BT have not widely publicised their Openzone product which currently serves 70 ``Hotspots''<sup>8.3</sup>, however Megabeam are launching shortly with a large event to celebrate their first network covering the whole of London City Airport<sup>8.4</sup>. The standard of marketing so far connected to WLAN has been rather poor, with a lack of high profile advertising or trial offers to entice people to use it. Since marketing is one of the major factors that contribute to failure, commercial wireless LAN technology may find itself as successful as it’s ancestor which sued access points - the CT2 cordless phone. Poor marketing and design are not the only two factors that cause technologies to fail. The mindmap also showed that luck, politics, competitors, social and economic factors have their part to play. WLAN has arrived at a time when 3G has found itself becoming the buzz word for GSM suppliers, who have invested huge amounts of money in expensive licences for the third generation of mobile phones. The competition that CT2 phones faced from GSM 2 decades ago, is now back to haunt WLAN. With mobile operators having invested £22.5 billion<sup>8.5</sup> in 3G licences, the emphasis is defiantly not on WLAN to succeed. However market forecasts from ``Analysy'', the global advisor on telecoms and new media^8.6 believe that the end result in the play off between mobiles and WLAN will end up with 3G losing out on 10% of data traffic to wireless networking. Politics is also on WLANs side, since unlike 3G the UK government removed the need for licensing the IEEE 802.11 technology ^8.7 on 31 July 2002. This will make it much cheaper for small companies to set up large networks, unlike the proposed 3G systems. This is all good news for WLAN technology since it may have the edge on its competitor, in its timing and value for money. However to operate in the WLAN area, the user requires a laptop or a PDA which can be fitted with the appropriate card. This may restrict it to people who can afford these devices, unlike GSM phones which seem to have become common place since they only have one use, so mobile operators offer large subsidies on them to customers. Wireless LAN technology may have a worrying similarity to the failed CT2 cordless phone network; however it does appear it will have one difference: It may succeed. Having compared the technology to the factors found in failed technologies it shows that it has good prospects in the design, social and political areas; however it still faces possible marketing and competition problems. Despite these problems the initial consumer response to WLAN appears to be positive, and provided the marketing problems are addressed the technology appears to have a solid base to work from. Nortel Network’s White Paper on WLAN^8.8 talks about a new game needing new rules and states that “Wireless Data Networks will soon establish themselves as the new rules”. This is where WLAN and 3G will have to battle it out, so one of the technologies succeeds in the data market. Ultimately the success of Wireless LAN could depend on one major factor: Luck.